Take Kyle Busch (8-1), 1/6th unit. The younger Busch's record in three Richmond starts? Fourth, fourth and fifth. Yeah, I think it's safe to say he likes this joint. Busch led Happy Hour on Friday afternoon, and considering he won New Hampshire, placed fifth at Martinsville, and has posted a Phoenix win in his short career, the relatively flat tracks are his friend. Like Harvick, Busch isn't mathematically locked into the Chase, but he's darn close, and it would take a catastrophic scenario for him to miss the playoffs. As such, I think both he and Harvick will know they're locked in midway through this race, and will be able to go for a win when it comes down to the wire.

Take Denny Hamlin (15-1), 1/6th unit. Let's have one for the hometown boy. Hamlin is from Richmond, and cut his teeth on this exact speedway in lesser circuits. He finished second here in the spring, in his first Nextel Cup race at this place, and he, like the two drivers before him on this list, seems like pretty much a mathematical lock for the Chase. This is a slot I had reserved and ready for Earnhardt Jr., but this is a very tough venue to win from the rear, and Junior simply didn't practice or qualify well (he'll start 33rd). The last seven Richmond winners, and 10 of the last 11, have started inside the top-10, and that's what scared me away from Little-E. Hamlin has no such worries; he went out on Friday evening and qualified on the pole. It would be an amazing story, but I do think Hamlin can contend for his first win at home.